- Monthly is in an uptrend. That isn’t saying much because prices can go down as low as 43800 and still stick to a higher low. It can even go a little lower (based on the absolute swing low of it) but there is almost always a very strong reaction at the closes and it’s always good to have orders resting on monthly levels.
- Weekly, I mentioned it was a red flag last week that we had a break below the swing low of 56425 (lowest green line) and that I also like to look at closes and that if we close the week above 60900 (the other green line) then maybe the weekly uptrend has a chance to hold but it’s murky. We definitely closed below 60900 so that’s not murky to me anymore and a downtrend IMO.
- Daily is clearly still in a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows are marked with the yellow lines for an easy visual:
Volume profile analysis:
- Normally you see volume bars on the bottom along the X-axis in the form of a histogram. It’s mostly helpful just to see how much volume there is in all the price levels that make up a candle.
- Volume profile shows the volume on the Y-axis, to show how much volume there is a price regardless of the candles.
- On Bitcoin, the volume profile shows a mega gap between 50 and 54k (upper green box), similar to the gap we used to have between 41 and 45k a couple of months ago (bottom green box). Notice how we tend to slice through these areas historically (yellow circles) so I wouldn’t be surprised if we do that again. Except for this time maybe the market will bounce around and consolidate around this area as the market “digests” what is the value of ~50-54k BTC, the same way it did in September (bottom green box, rightmost yellow circle).
So to sum up
Monthly uptrend, weekly downtrend, 3-day downtrend, daily downtrend. Generally very powerful when so many time frames are in alignment. Monthly is your saving grace but that also means we can go much, much lower and still be in an uptrend on that time frame. So the question is… Where will the monthly stick the higher low? 438xx would be a valid higher low. But it would be more bullish if we bounce from 47-48k. And remember, TA isn’t about predicting. It’s about helping you figure out entries with valid stops and exits with a risk/reward that makes sense. So I’m not saying we are going to 43800. I’m saying if it goes there, it would be an incredibly good risk/reward play.
So currently the only thing that makes sense is to short the weekly lower high (the candidate is between 62 and 65k with a stop at 66.6k). Or long the monthly higher low. If market structure changes in the meantime and we look like we are bottoming, I will adjust and scout for entries, but so far, that’s all I see and am sitting on my hands until then.